Deaths Could Range from 85,688 to 180,273, Depending on Prevention Measures

South Africa, Kenya, Malawi, Zambia, and Zimbabwe most at-risk of high numbers of deaths

Dr. John Nkengasong, Director of the Africa CDC: ‘ Many thousands of deaths can be prevented’

SEATTLE, Aug. 11, 2020 /PRNewswire/ — In new COVID-19 projections for sub Saharan Africa, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington forecasts that nearly universal adherence to mask-wearing and social distancing mandates in hard-hit countries could prevent up to 73,085 deaths in the region by December 1.

Even in this best-case scenario, the pandemic would still take a heavy toll on the region, with an estimated total of 85,688 COVID-19 deaths by December (up from 15,000 deaths in mid-July). If governments instead continue to relax social distancing measures and mask-wearing is not widely practiced, total deaths by December 1 could rise to 180,273.

Near universal adherence to mask-wearing and other prevention measures could reduce the death toll to 85,688 total deaths by December 1. However, if people ignore such efforts, IHME forecasts 158,773 deaths.

“It is encouraging that in many sub-Saharan African countries, early mandates to practice social distancing and limit travel mitigated the spread of COVID-19,” said IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray. “These new projections suggest such mandates must continue to play a critical role, and that people in all countries should wear masks regularly. As we have seen in the United States, the price of loosening these mitigation efforts prematurely could be significant increases in new cases and deaths.”

IHME’s modeling of the COVID-19 pandemic draws on reporting from African ministries of health as well as data characterizing the virus’s spread from countries around the world. The projections were produced in consultation with the Africa CDC, an arm of the African Union.

“These data provide an additional set of projections that governments can take into consideration in their decision-making process on how best to protect lives,” said Dr. John Nkengasong, Director of the Africa CDC. “Many thousands of deaths can be prevented by continuing to encourage correct, widespread, consistent mask use, social distancing, and careful people movement. We at the Africa CDC are working closely and collaboratively with heads of state, ministers of health, and others to provide counsel on how to navigate this epidemic, while seeking to minimize the economic and social consequences.”

According to IHME’s projections, the largest numbers of deaths are likely to occur in South Africa, Zambia, Kenya, Malawi, and Zimbabwe (see table below).

IHME’s analysis highlights the potential impact of effective prevention measures. For example, if correct mask use increases to 95% and social distancing mandates are re-imposed when daily deaths exceed 8 per million, South Africa’s December 1 death toll could be reduced from 41,402 (range of 25,263 to 62,575) to 31,529 (19,936 to 46,944).

IHME has been issuing COVID-19 forecasts since March and is one of the world’s leading modelers of the pandemic. Today’s projections for sub-Saharan Africa are based on IHME’s latest models and include health system data, such as hospitalizations, ICU admissions, and ventilator needs, as well as infections, deaths, and prevalence of antibodies. Other factors include estimates of testing per capita, mobility, social distancing mandates, mask use, social contact rates, and pneumonia seasonality. Forecasts are based on the most recent available data and may change over time as new data become available.

Murray noted that the quality of data reporting systems in many sub-Saharan African nations falls below that of other countries in their fight against COVID-19. Thus, the range of death projections is greater than those of previous IHME forecasts. In a small number of countries, the available data are not yet sufficient to produce effective projections.

“Given the limitations of our current forecasts for sub-Saharan Africa, it is important for health officials and policymakers to plan for the upper range of COVID-19 estimates, while also insisting on proven methods to mitigate infections, such as mask-wearing and social distancing,” Murray said.

(Note: The total for sub-Saharan Africa excludes Botswana, Burundi, Eritrea, Lesotho, Namibia, Tanzania, and Uganda; IHME currently lacks estimates for those countries.)

The new death projections and other information, such as hospital resources usage, are available at https://covid19.healthdata.org.

IHME wishes to warmly acknowledge the support of these and others who have made our COVID-19 estimation efforts possible. Thank you.

About the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) is an independent global health research organization at the University of Washington School of Medicine that provides rigorous and comparable measurement of the world’s most important health problems and evaluates the strategies used to address them. IHME is committed to transparency and makes this information widely available so that policymakers have the evidence they need to make informed decisions on allocating resources to improve population health.

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